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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+124/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -152 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a whopping 63.7 per game on average).
  • In this game, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the model to land in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs with 17.8 carries.
  • After comprising 58.1% of his team's rush attempts last season, Christian McCaffrey has been called on more in the rushing attack this season, now taking on 68.9%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mac Jones in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to run on 39.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
  • When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Houston's safety corps has been terrific this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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