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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Carries
Player Prop Week 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-109/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The 49ers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 64.2 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to notch 17.7 rush attempts in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his team's ground game this season (68.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (58.1%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup quarterback Mac Jones.
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
  • The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.9% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Tampa Bay's unit has been excellent this year, projecting as the 8th-best in football.

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