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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Carries
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-123/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

This week, Christian McCaffrey is forecasted by the model to land in the 92nd percentile among running backs with 17.5 carries.

After comprising 58.1% of his offense's run game usage last season, Christian McCaffrey has had a larger role in the ground game this season, now comprising 68.4%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Jacksonville's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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