Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to run on 46.6% of their chances: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week.
This week, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the projection model to land in the 80th percentile among running backs with 15.9 rush attempts.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's LB corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack in this game (54.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (67.0% in games he has played).

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