Christian McCaffrey Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accrue 20.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this year (69.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.4%).
The 49ers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.

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