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Christian Kirk Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Christian Kirk Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-350).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +600 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +255.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.

The model projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

This year, the poor Colts pass defense has been torched for a massive 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 10th-highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Texans offensive approach to skew 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

After totaling 81.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Kirk has regressed heavily this year, now pacing 32.0 per game.

Christian Kirk's 27.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 49.3.

With a poor 56.6% Adjusted Catch% (19th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk has been among the worst possession receivers in the league among wideouts.

More Christian Kirk Player Props

Christian Kirk TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Christian Kirk Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18