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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-830).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -760 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -830.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.24 seconds per snap, the model projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.5%) to wideouts this year (70.5%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Texans, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to pass on 54.6% of their plays: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Raiders defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
  • Christian Kirk has posted quite a few less air yards this season (33.0 per game) than he did last season (81.0 per game).
  • Christian Kirk's 26.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 49.3.

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