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Christian Kirk Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+720/-850).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -940 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -850.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -4-point underdogs.At the moment, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Texans.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.This year, the deficient Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a staggering 75.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.After averaging 81.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Kirk has gotten worse this year, currently pacing 36.0 per game.Christian Kirk's 28.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 49.3.The Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 7th-fewest TDs through the air in the league to wide receivers: 0.67 per game this year.When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's CB corps has been outstanding this year, ranking as the best in football.
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