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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+580/-670).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -550 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -670.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect the Texans to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Texans this year (a staggering 60.5 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect Christian Kirk to be much less involved in his offense's passing offense near the end zone in this contest (10.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
  • After accruing 81.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Kirk has undergone a big decline this season, currently averaging 41.0 per game.
  • Christian Kirk's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 49.3.
  • Christian Kirk profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a measly 58.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile among WRs

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