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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+730/-900).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +750 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +730.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • After accruing 81.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Kirk has significantly declined this year, currently averaging 44.0 per game.
  • Christian Kirk's 31.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 49.3.
  • Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 57.6% to 53.8%.
  • Christian Kirk has not scored a TD through the air this year.

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