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Christian Kirk Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Christian Kirk Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+620/-800).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -530 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -800.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.

With a 61.6% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in this setting has been the Texans.

The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.

The model projects Christian Kirk to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone in this week's game (9.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.4 per game) this year.

After accruing 81.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Kirk has gotten worse this season, now boasting 48.0 per game.

Christian Kirk's 34.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 49.3.

More Christian Kirk Player Props

Christian Kirk TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Christian Kirk Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11