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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-215/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Christian Kirk has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense this season (12.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.6%).
  • Christian Kirk grades out as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league, completing just 56.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 14th percentile among wide receivers
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's CB corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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