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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-111/-120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
  • This year, the poor Colts pass defense has been torched for a massive 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 10th-highest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Texans offensive approach to skew 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • Christian Kirk has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this year (12.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.6%).
  • With a poor 56.6% Adjusted Catch% (19th percentile) this year, Christian Kirk has been among the worst possession receivers in the league among wideouts.

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