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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 58.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.33 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
  • The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
  • Christian Kirk's 12.5% Target% this year indicates a noteable reduction in his air attack workload over last year's 19.6% rate.
  • This year, the strong Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a mere 58.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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