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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-111/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's unit has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a heavy 10-point favorite this week.
  • Christian Kirk has been a much smaller piece of his team's pass game this season (13.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.6%).
  • The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Christian Kirk comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in the league, catching just 57.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 15th percentile among wide receivers

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