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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+146/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -155.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Texans this year (a staggering 60.5 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Christian Kirk's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 49.3.
  • Christian Kirk profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a measly 58.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile among WRs

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