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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see 129.1 plays on offense called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

Christian Kirk has posted a whopping 81.0 air yards per game last year: 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Christian Kirk rates in the 82nd percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 49.3 figure last year.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (159.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The model projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The Houston Texans have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

The Texans O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.

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