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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
  • The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (175.0) to WRs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Texans offensive approach to skew 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • Christian Kirk has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this year (12.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.6%).
  • After totaling 81.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Kirk has regressed heavily this year, now pacing 32.0 per game.
  • Christian Kirk has totaled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).

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