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Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-147/+114).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Texans this year (a staggering 60.5 per game on average).The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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After accruing 81.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Kirk has undergone a big decline this season, currently averaging 41.0 per game.Christian Kirk's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 49.3.Christian Kirk has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (45.0).Christian Kirk profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a measly 58.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile among WRsChristian Kirk's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a mere 5.16 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.73 figure last year.
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