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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • Christian Kirk's 14.3% Target Share this season illustrates a noteable reduction in his pass attack workload over last season's 19.6% mark.
  • After accruing 81.0 air yards per game last year, Christian Kirk has significantly declined this year, currently averaging 44.0 per game.
  • Christian Kirk has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (21.0) this year than he did last year (45.0).
  • Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 57.6% to 53.8%.

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