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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans rank as the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) last year with a 63.3% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 132.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

This week, Christian Kirk is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 75th percentile among wide receivers with 6.1 targets.

With a top-tier 19.6% Target Rate (82nd percentile) last year, Christian Kirk has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Last year, the stout Rams defense has conceded a feeble 59.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

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