Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 132.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.