Christian Kirk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Christian Kirk has compiled far fewer air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 64.8%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 10th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.