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Christian Kirk

Christian Kirk Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-258).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +178.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.

Christian Kirk has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.5% this year, which puts him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.

Christian Kirk's 52.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 81st percentile for wide receivers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Christian Kirk grades out in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Christian Kirk has totaled far fewer air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).

Christian Kirk's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.5%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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