Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Christian Kirk has accumulated many more air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's 62.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 47.3.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Christian Kirk ranks in the 97th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.75 per game.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (24.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).
Christian Kirk's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.6%.
The Houston Texans defense has yielded the least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.25 per game this year.

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