Christian Kirk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Christian Kirk

NFL · Player Props

Christian Kirk

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian Kirk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Christian Kirk has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 29.4% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Christian Kirk's 55.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 83rd percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

Christian Kirk has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (69.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
Christian Kirk's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 67.1%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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