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Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Washington Commanders vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-530).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -510 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -530.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.9 plays per game.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.4%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (87.4%).
  • Since the start of last season, the tough Las Vegas Raiders run defense has conceded a paltry 0.74 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 9th-smallest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 46.8% red zone run rate.
  • With a poor 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) last year, Chris Rodriguez Jr. places as one of the pass-game running backs with the least usage near the end zone in football.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 0.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) grades out among the worst in football: 17th percentile for RBs.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. ranks in the 1st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns last year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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