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Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -178 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Josh Johnson.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 131.8 total plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has notched a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (50.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Commanders.
  • The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (just 54.5 per game on average).
  • Among all RBs, Chris Rodriguez Jr. grades out in the 78th percentile for red zone carries this year, comprising 41.7% of the volume in his offense's ground game near the end zone.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 1.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the worst in the league: 11th percentile for running backs.
  • The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s player page this year.

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