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Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-255).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -255.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Commanders, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has compiled a staggering 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
  • The Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns in the league to running backs: 0.29 per game this year.
  • The Eagles safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 4th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (48.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has earned 41.2% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. slots into just the 10th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an unimpressive 1.5 mark this year.
  • The receiving TD column reads "0" on Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s box scores this year.
  • With an outstanding rate of 0.36 touchdowns on the ground per game (79th percentile), Chris Rodriguez Jr. rates as one of the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL this year.

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