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Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+168/-196).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +164 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +168.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has accumulated a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Minnesota's DT corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.5% red zone run rate.
  • The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.
  • Among all running backs, Chris Rodriguez Jr. ranks in the 76th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, accounting for 39.6% of the usage in his team's run game near the goal line.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been in just the 9th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) with an unimpressive 1.6 mark this year.

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