reorder

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for a staggering 89.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the highest rate in the league.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 4th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.2% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

More Chris Rodriguez Jr. Player Props

Chris Rodriguez Jr. TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11