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Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect Chris Rodriguez Jr. to be a much bigger part of his team's run game in this contest (31.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).
  • Chris Rodriguez checks in as one of the best RBs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.44 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.
  • Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (140 per game) vs. the Dolphins defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 4.5 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a material diminishment in his rushing talent over last season's 5.3 figure.

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