Chris Rodriguez Jr. Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Chris Rodriguez Jr.

NFL · Player Props

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Chris Rodriguez to be a more integral piece of his team's run game in this contest (28.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.9% in games he has played).
Chris Rodriguez's rushing effectiveness (4.75 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (86th percentile when it comes to running backs).
Chris Rodriguez profiles as one of the top RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.29 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

A throwing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to run on 33.8% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Right now, the 8th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
The Los Angeles defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year with their run defense.

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