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Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Chris Rodriguez Jr. Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
  • This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for a staggering 89.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been not been very involved his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which places him in the 1st percentile when it comes to RBs.

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