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Chris Olave

Chris Olave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Chris Olave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Chris Olave has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 30.8% this year, which puts him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Chris Olave has put up far more air yards this season (112.0 per game) than he did last season (57.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.
  • Chris Olave's 64.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 73.7% mark.
  • This year, the tough Buccaneers defense has surrendered a measly 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 9th-smallest rate in football.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of CBs has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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