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Chris Olave

Chris Olave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-375).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +260.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Saints being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 138.7 total plays called: the most on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Our trusted projections expect Chris Olave to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this week's contest (28.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.2% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.7% pass rate.

The New Orleans Saints have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The New Orleans O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Chris Olave's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 73.7% to 53.7%.

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