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Chris Olave

Chris Olave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

New Orleans Saints vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Chris Olave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -182.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.7 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a whopping 59.1 per game on average).
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
  • Chris Olave has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.8% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
  • After averaging 57.0 air yards per game last year, Chris Olave has made big progress this year, currently pacing 108.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line implies a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 52.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect the Saints to be the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.6% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Jets, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.
  • Chris Olave's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 73.7% to 65.2%.

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