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Chris Olave

Chris Olave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Chris Olave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+196/-255).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -255 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -255.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Saints being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints offense to be the fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.62 seconds per snap.
  • The predictive model expects Chris Olave to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the end zone in this game (31.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).
  • After averaging 57.0 air yards per game last year, Chris Olave has seen a big uptick this year, currently sitting at 111.0 per game.
  • Chris Olave's 69.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 45.5.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
  • Chris Olave's 65.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a remarkable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 73.7% rate.

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