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Chris Olave

Chris Olave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Chris Olave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-350).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +300 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Saints, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
  • With a 59.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in these situations has been the New Orleans Saints.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • With an exceptional 26.7% Red Zone Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Chris Olave places as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.
  • Chris Olave has compiled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 54.5% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Chris Olave's 65.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents an impressive drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 73.7% figure.
  • The Panthers pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) versus WRs this year (62.3%).
  • This year, the stout Carolina Panthers defense has yielded a meager 0.56 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-best rate in the league.

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