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Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Chris Godwin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+400/-510).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -390 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -510.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Buccaneers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The Buccaneers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.2 plays per game.
  • Chris Godwin Jr. has garnered a whopping 22.7% of his offense's air yards last year: 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Chris Godwin Jr. rates in the 89th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 56.2 mark last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offense to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard now calling the plays.
  • The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Eagles, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.2 per game) since the start of last season.
  • While Chris Godwin Jr. has received 21.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Tampa Bay's pass game near the goal line this week at 16.0%.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (66.0% Adjusted Completion%).

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