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Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Chris Godwin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-385).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -385 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -385.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (59.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Chris Godwin Jr. has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.8% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • After averaging 48.0 air yards per game last year, Chris Godwin Jr. has been rising this year, now sitting at 53.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have only 126.4 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Chris Godwin Jr.'s 43.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 56.2.
  • Chris Godwin Jr.'s 59.8% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a substantial decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 83.2% rate.
  • The Panthers pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) to wideouts this year (62.3%).

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