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Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Chris Godwin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-270).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -270.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (59.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Chris Godwin Jr. has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
  • After averaging 48.0 air yards per game last season, Chris Godwin Jr. has made big progress this season, currently pacing 56.0 per game.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 4.5 points.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.9 per game) this year.
  • Chris Godwin Jr.'s 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 56.2.

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