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Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Chris Godwin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-255).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -255.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.3 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • With a sizeable 19.0% Red Zone Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Chris Godwin Jr. rates as one of the WRs with the highest volume near the goal line in football.
  • Chris Godwin Jr. has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (48.0 per game).
  • The Tampa Bay O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 53.1% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: fewest in football.
  • Chris Godwin Jr.'s 44.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 56.2.
  • Chris Godwin Jr.'s 49.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a noteable regression in his receiving ability over last year's 83.2% rate.

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