Chris Godwin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+146/-202).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to be a more important option in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (21.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Chris Godwin has notched quite a few less air yards this season (56.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin's 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 47.5.
Chris Godwin's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 79.5% to 73.2%.
Chris Godwin grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.