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Chigoziem Okonkwo

Chigoziem Okonkwo Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Chigoziem Okonkwo Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+445/-770).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -700 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -770.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -6-point underdog this week.

While Chig Okonkwo has earned 8.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be much more involved in Tennessee's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 14.7%.

Chig Okonkwo has notched a massive 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Chig Okonkwo's 27.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 76th percentile for tight ends.

Since the start of last season, the weak Indianapolis Colts defense has been torched for a staggering 75.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.

Chig Okonkwo's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.1% to 67.0%.

The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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