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Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-109).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -109.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Titans are an enormous 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.In this week's contest, Chig Okonkwo is forecasted by the model to rank in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.Chig Okonkwo has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 16.8% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.With a fantastic 3.2 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Chig Okonkwo places among the top pass-game tight ends in the league.The Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (84.9%) vs. tight ends this year (84.9%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Titans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call just 62.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 10th-best in football.
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