Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been used less as a potential target this season (70.2% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (32.0%).
Chigoziem Okonkwo's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 71.9% to 77.1%.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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