Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 4, 2026 11:47 PM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Titans are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 50.7% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Chig Okonkwo to garner 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The projections expect Chig Okonkwo to be a more important option in his offense's passing game this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.9% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The model projects the Titans to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Chig Okonkwo's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, compiling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.87 mark last year.
This year, the daunting Jaguars defense has yielded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a paltry 7.3 yards.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been great this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.