Chase Edmonds Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.