Chase Claypool Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Claypool Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Claypool to total 1.5 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs and TEs.
Chase Claypool has averaged 7.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among WRs and TEs (96th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Chase Claypool to be much less involved in his team's run game this week (5.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated some form of misdirection on just 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.